DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/14 10:59
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 6 to 7 cents higher, soybeans are 16 to 17 cents higher, and wheat
is 9 to 11 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 110. The dollar index is 6
points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are flat with crude
down $0.10. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold off
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with steady spread action after
trade bounced back from early weakness with December losing ground to soybeans
on the acre battle this a.m. Ethanol margins will remain poor with weaker
action in nearby corn cash markets not enough to help. Basis is likely to
weaken further in the short term as fresh cash demand remains weak. The daily
wire will be watched for further sales with Argentina lifting export
restrictions with weekly export sales very strong at 1.44 million metric tons.
On the March contract support is the 20-day at $4.74, with the next level up
the upper Bollinger Band at $5.35, and the contract high at $5.41 1/2 above
Soybeans are 16 to 17 cents higher on the front months and 17 to 18 higher
for new crop with spread action still a little soft nearby, and new crop
needing to compete for acres. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 higher and oil is 30 to 40
points lower. Basis has started to show pockets of weakness with crush likely
to take precedence over shipping in coming weeks with crush margins narrowing
overall although we have seen fresh bookings in recent days. Brazil should
catch rains short term, with the better action sticking around in Argentina for
now. Weekly export sales were strong at 908,000 of old crop, 326,000 metric
tons of new, 337,400 of new meal, 60,000 of new meal, and 11,100 of oil. The
March chart has resistance at the fresh high at $14.38 then the upper Bollinger
Band at $14.44, with support the 20-day at 13.08.
Wheat trade is 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with active two sided trade
turning to broad buying and Chicago action regaining the lead at midday. The
dollar remains above 90 on the index with buying drying up again. The plains
are expected to see limited moisture with cold scares remaining limited for
now. Kansas City is at 36-cent discount to Chicago after hitting the tightest
level in weeks and then reversing, with Minneapolis at -31 backing away from
the tightest levels seen recently. Weekly export sales were soft at 221,900
metric tons of old crop, and 10,000 of new. Kansas City March chart support is
the 20-day at $5.93, and resistance is the fresh high at $6.40.
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